Murray Mandryk: Maximizing first doses may be a problem

By Murray Mandryk

Saskatchewan has soared past one million COVID-19 vaccine doses.

This is great news — literally, the shot in the arm we all want.

It’s also the big reason why Premier Scott Moe has announced that, as of July 11, we will be able to end mask-wearing restrictions and end restrictions on large gathers so we can have weddings or fill Mosaic Stadium for Saskatchewan Roughrider games.

This is, quite literally, a return to business as usual ... although it won’t quite be business as usual for some time yet.

This is something that Moe emphasized in his announcement that also strongly suggested the COVID-19 fight is not over. And in a somewhat unnerving reminder, Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab suggested earlier this month that COVID-19 may linger for many years as the Spanish flu did for years after the initial outbreak in 1918, with outbreaks and new mutating variants.

Our best strategy can be found in those 1,000,000 shots in the arm, Moe, Shahab and virtually everyone has continual told us.

However, the burning question right now is: How do we keep encouraging people to get vaccinated if we no longer have the carrot and/or the stick of re-opening things that were shut down?

Eyebrows were raised when Moe announced the kick-in of the third step and final step in re-opening, short of the stated goal of having 70 per cent of those 12 years and old who are eligible vaccinated with one at least one dose.

The real problem, however, may not specifically be Moe announcing his full-scale re-opening plan before reaching what was always a rather arbitrary goal.

Nor is it likely that the problem is the worry that people will now not come in for their required second shot, now that things are re-opening.

While there is a good argument that removal of restrictions should have been tied to reaching some level of the population fully vaccinated with a second dose, there’s actually been some pretty good news on that second-dose front.

We lag behind virtually every other province in the country in percentage of the total population with first-dose vaccinations —somewhat because of reluctance and difficulty in getting vaccines, but also because Saskatchewan has a disproportionally high percentage of child under 12 years that aren’t eligible for vaccines.

But we are more than holding our own when it comes to getting people out for second doses once they’ve invested in getting that first dose.

For example, of those 70 years and older, 92 per cent have received a first dose. However, 83 per cent of those over 80 years now have had their second dose and 78 per cent of those between 70 and 79 years have had received their second dose.

That said, we might be close to maxing out on those interested in any doses at all.

On the day this column was written, there were 6,496 doses doled out in Saskatchewan, but only 898 of them were first doses. At this rate, it would take another two weeks full meet that 70-per-cent, first-dose target.

We will eventually reach that 70-per-cent goal. The questions are: How much higher will we go? What are the consequences if we don’t go higher much higher? And what is going to motivate unvaccinated people to come in for vaccines if it is business as usual?

It’s all a bit puzzling because people know vaccines are working.

We know vaccinations are why we are seeing fewer daily COVID-19 cases and fewer hospitalizations.

We also know that 80- to 90-per-cent of current hospitalizations are people who haven’t been vaccinated.

Yet we seem to stalling when it comes to getting the remainder of people vaccinated.

Let’s hope re-opening doesn’t become Saskatchewan’s excuse not to finish the job.