Murray Mandryk: Things may be tough for Sask. in COVID-19 fight

By Murray Mandryk

Saskatchewan may finally be getting tougher in some aspects of COVID-19 fight.

Some still questions whether it’s really necessary.

For others, however, the questions are: Why did it take so long? Why isn’t the government getting even tougher?

People fed up with restrictions and wanting a break will likely be especially frustrated with the government’s decision to extend the pre-Christmas restrictions limiting household gatherings to immediate family and outdoor gatherings to 10 people to Feb. 19.

Certainly, the daily case count has slipped a bit (to an average of 254 cases a day, based on the last seven days).

“These measures are working when we follow them,” Premier Scott Moe said last week, suggesting that all we have to do is follow the existing rules to make sure things are working.

“There’s been a small number — mainly bars and restaurants — who are not following them.”

Therein lies the problem. Some businesses or their customers clearly are not following the rules, with three bars in Regina or Saskatoon being fined $14,000 each for violations.

The fines may appear to be an indication of the government getting tough, but they may also be a sign that we’ve gone about as far on COVID-19 restrictions as Moe is willing to go.

He announced during the final week of the Saskatchewan election campaign in October that there would not be another lockdown and has stuck to that commitment.

Last week, Moe described fines as the last resort and pleaded with people to follow the existing restrictions in place.

If people do so, perhaps the province will be able to list restrictions in three weeks, he added.

But will that truly solve the COVID-19 problem? Saskatchewan’s lower daily case count may not be quite as rosy as the Premier suggest.

The problem with the case numbers is that they are based on identified symptomatic people getting testing when the real problem may be asymptomatic people unknowingly carrying the virus and spreading it to others.

An arguably better indicator is the positivity rate — the percentage of people tested who tested positive. It has stubbornly remained more than 10 per cent in Saskatchewan for weeks.

And the most crucial number is the death toll that’s already made January the deadliest month in Saskatchewan for COVID-19 related fatalities with a week in the month to go.

And also contrary to Moe’s suggestions, we haven’t been as tough as other places.

For the first time in your lifetime, you face restrictions travelling to a neighbouring province after Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister issued a 14-day quarantine order for outsiders coming in.

Of course, many Manitobans are unhappy about such restrictions — especially since the province is well into its second month of a lockdown with restrictions far more severe than here.

But Manitoba’s per capita daily new case counts — once far in excess of Saskatchewan’s — are now back down in the double digits.

And with a new more virulent strain of COVID-19 now in this country, the new worry for all jurisdictions is a far more rapid spread of cases capable of swamping health systems.

By contrast, Moe is now counting on a combination of fines for individuals and business breaking the rules, people’s willingness to abide by the existing rules and the arrival of vaccines.

It is true that the Saskatchewan Premier has overseen one of the most successful vaccine rollouts in the nation.

But as Moe frustratingly acknowledged last week, the province has now run out of vaccines to distribute. And we are months away from seeing enough of a critical mass of people vaccinated people to make a difference.

Of course, there’s the legitimate hope numbers will just go down with the warmer weather.

But if they don’t many may wonder why Moe wasn’t get tougher.