Preliminary runoff outlook spells dry times for Maple Creek

Below average rainfall last year in Saskatchewan had producers carefully checking their Farmers Almanacs for the winter forecast. On March 1, the Saskatchewan Water Security Agency (WSA) released an updated forecast and map.

“Moisture conditions across southern Saskatchewan were generally dry at freeze-up in 2022, particularly on the west side of the province where drought conditions were prevalent,” said the March 9 WSA press release. “Winter snowfall has ranged from below normal over much of southwestern Saskatchewan (other than a small pocket in the extreme southwest south of the Cypress Hills where the snowpack is well above normal), to well above normal through much of central Saskatchewan.”

Ordinarily Paul Heglund, a Consul-area farmer, envies producers on the north side of the Hills, but not this year.

“I’ve received 23 inches between March 1 and March 11. Most of it dry and fluffy,” he said.

Maple Creek is often the province’s hot spot during the coldest winter months thanks to the chinooks that visit courtesy of the adiabatic heating from the Cypress Hills. But too many warm days combined with low snowfall mean the snow disappears, leaving very little for the spring temperatures to melt.

What happens with the runoff in the drier parts of the province will depend considerably on how fast or slow the snow melts. If it melts quickly, more run-off is likely thereby replenishing surface water sources. A slower melt will allow the soil to absorb more, replenishing the soil column.

“In areas where below or well below normal snowmelt runoff is expected, some water supply concerns may emerge or intensify. For instance, irrigation water supply in the Bigstick Lake Basin near Maple Creek is expected to experience a third consecutive year of shortages,” according to the WSA release.

The Kindersley region is anticipated to have above normal or near normal runoff. The next runoff report will be released in early April.