Whitecap Resource Inc announced 2023 results, reserves, operations and guidance update
By Brian Zinchuk
Continued from last week
Weyburn Unit
Buying the operating interest in the Weyburn Unit appears to have worked out well for Whitecap. The company said, “The profitability of our Weyburn asset is a function of an extremely low decline rate of 3 per cent and a 100 per cent oil and NGLs production base with 35 per cent of rollout areas still to be converted for CO2 injection. We drilled 4 (3.4 net) producing wells and 4 (3.7 net) injection wells in 2023, with our 2024 program increasing to 9 (6.3 net) producing wells and 8 (5.2 net) injection wells. Net operating income8 from this asset has paid out the purchase price of $940 million 1.2 times since we acquired it in December 2017. The property continues to produce 14,500 boepd net to Whitecap at this time.”
And across the line, Whitecap said, “In Central Alberta, our focus is in the Cardium and Glauconite formations, drilling 16 (10.4 net) wells into the Cardium and 14 (12.8 net) wells into the Glauconite in 2023. Our West Pembina Cardium program achieved strong results with average IP(90) rates exceeding expectations by 10 per cent. Our Glauconite continues to achieve strong results, with average production rates in line with our expectations and liquids rates outperforming by 5 per cent on an IP(90) basis. Our consolidated land position has allowed us to continually test increasing lateral lengths. We plan to drill 5 (4.9 net) Glauconite wells with an average lateral length of 2,700 metres and 8 (5.8 net) Cardium wells in the first quarter.
West Division
“We continue to advance operations in our West Division including a buildout of new facilities and infrastructure to handle our production growth into the future,” the company said. “We are looking forward to our next stage of Montney development at Musreau with the completion of our battery in the second quarter of this year. Our 2023 West Division drilling program has achieved excellent results thus far with average well results performing above type curve expectations, while we also continue to expand our technical knowledge of our asset base.
“At Kakwa, we are encouraged by strong initial results on our two most recent Montney pads, where we have optimized our development strategy for dynamic reservoir and fluid properties in this localized area. Our 3-well (3.0 net) 02-26 (B) pad was brought on production in September and has achieved an average IP(120) rate of 1,889 boe/d (32 per cent liquids) per well which is 26 per cent above our expectations. The 3-well (3.0 net) 03-21 (B) pad that was drilled in the fourth quarter was tied into permanent facilities in early February, with test results showing similar characteristics as the 02-26 (B) pad.
The company said although early, it is are encouraged by the initial results of these two pads and application of this well design and spacing strategy may be transferable to other areas of future Montney and Duvernay development. “While we ultimately believe that individual pad design will be tailored to the various geological and reservoir characteristics across our asset base, successful application of this well design and spacing strategy across a broader area has the potential to meaningfully improve the overall economics of our unconventional drilling inventory well into the future.”
“We also spud our first two 4-well pads (8.0 net wells) at Musreau in the fourth quarter, which are expected to be completed and ready to be brought on production upon completion of our 20,000 boepd battery. The ramp up of production into this facility will occur during the second quarter, and we target facility capacity being reached as our third and fourth 4-well pads (8.0 net wells) are brought on production at Musreau later this year.”
At Lator, the company recently drilled a 2-well (2.0 net) pad as part of its validation and delineation efforts of this future area of Montney growth. The wells have achieved IP(60) rates of 1,655 boe/d (45 per cent liquids) per well which are approximately 15 per cent above our expectations. Strong return characteristics along with a significant land position will make Lator an area of meaningful growth for the West Division in the coming years. Whitecap said, “We plan to drill an additional two (2.0 net) Montney wells at Lator in 2024. Engineering and commercial work is underway to establish the optimal development and infrastructure strategy for this area.”
“With respect to our Duvernay asset at Kaybob, our results continue to outperform our expectations as our first seven (7.0 net) wells (4-well and 3-well pads) achieved an average IP(90) rate of approximately 1,600 boepd (36 per cent liquids) per well, which is 24 per cent above our expectations. We plan to bring eight (8.0 net) wells on during 2024 as we continue to increase production towards our target of 90 per cent capacity of our 100 per cent owned 15-07 gas processing facility by the end of 2025. The first 3 wells of our 2024 program are currently being drilled to a 4,200-metre lateral length, approximately 750 metres longer than our initial seven Duvernay wells.”
As part of the execution of its 2024 capital spending program and long-range planning scenarios, Whitecap has an active water management strategy to mitigate impacts of potential drought conditions in Alberta. They will have a combination of term and temporary licenses along with established water infrastructure to support its 2024 program.
2023 RESERVES
Operational success and a deep set of highly economic inventory has resulted in strong year end reserve values, the company said. “We continue to see the benefits of our consolidation strategy that began in late-2020 as greater scale and asset optimization opportunities have yielded consistent per share growth and increasing net present values.
“One of the benefits of consolidating acreage has been an ability to drill longer laterals in areas that were previously restricted by ownership boundaries. In addition, we are consistently expanding the applicability of increased lateral lengths to greater portions of our asset base, giving potential for improved capital efficiencies and, therefore, increased profitability. At year end, we have identified 6,400 drilling locations in inventory which provides for over 25 years of sustainable and profitable growth.”
Whitecap highlighted the following 2023 year end reserve report results:
Per Share Focus. Debt-adjusted reserves per share increased 6 per cent on a PDP basis, 10 per cent on a TP basis and 7 per cent on a total proven plus probable (“TPP”) basis despite net dispositions decreasing total reserves. Whitecap’s focus on per share metrics along with strong return on capital execution will maximize long-term profits for its shareholders, it said.
Production Replacement. Prior to the impact of net dispositions, we replaced 107 per cent of production on a PDP basis, 141 per cent of production on a TP basis and 107 per cent of production on a TPP basis. Strong operational execution along with a prolific asset base provide for increased sustainability over the long term.
Long-Dated Inventory. White caps says its has significant inventory life across all its assets, with a PDP reserve life index (RLI) of 6 years, a TP RLI of 13 years, and a TPP RLI of 19 years. These are consistent with the three-year average and are reflective of the expansive opportunity Whitecap has to develop these assets over time.
Strong Recycle Ratios. Whitecap’s PDP F&D1 cost of $14.68 per boe, its TP F&D cost of $17.62 per boe and its TPP F&D cost of $20.46 per boe resulted in strong recycle ratios of 2.4 times, 2.0 times and 1.8 times, respectively. The three-year average F&D recycle ratios range from 2.6 times to 3.3 times, which emphasizes its strong asset base and our focus on long-term profitability.
OUTLOOK
“We have increased our 2024 average production guidance range to 165,000 – 170,000 boepd (8 per cent production per share growth) to reflect the Viking tuck-in acquisition along with the reduction in capital spending. Our capital budget is now expected to be $900 million to $1.1 billion, which is $100 million lower than originally budgeted, providing another year of strong operational execution underpinned by the technical enhancements undertaken in 2023,” Whitecap said.
“WTI crude oil prices continue to be relatively volatile but have been rangebound between US$70/bbl and US$80/bbl and currently at approximately US$75/bbl for the balance of 2024. This, combined with the weak Canadian dollar, results in a very strong Canadian crude oil price in excess of $100/bbl. We also anticipate light and heavy oil differentials to tighten further throughout the year with the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project in the coming months, bringing further pricing upside to Canadian crude oil production.
“Natural gas prices are currently challenged with the lack of winter demand resulting in weak AECO prices forecasted through to the end of the summer, and a seasonal increase into next winter is anticipated. While the liquids component of our unconventional assets currently drives the economics, our growth in natural gas volumes is anticipated to coincide with the commissioning of LNG Canada in 2025. Completion of this facility is an important step for Canada, as there will be an ability to deliver natural gas to overseas markets which should reduce gas-on-gas competition within Canada. Further to this, as part of our ongoing efforts to diversify our natural gas volumes, we have joined Rockies LNG Partners to contribute 100,000 mcf/d of natural gas towards the Ksi Lisims LNG project and add exposure to non-North American natural gas prices.
“At current strip prices, we are forecasting 2024 funds flow of approximately $1.6 billion which results in free funds flow of $600 million, after capital investments. This is more than sufficient to fund our annual dividend obligation of $435 million. We have stress tested our dividend down to US$50/bbl WTI and $2.00/GJ AECO and have further flexibility to reduce our capital program to ensure dividends and capital investments are fully funded by cash flows. Our balance sheet remains in excellent shape with low leverage and ample liquidity to support the business throughout various commodity price cycles.”
Whitecap continued, “Our long term organic corporate growth outlook has been updated and increased to 210,000 boepd by the end of 2028, which represents average organic growth of 5 per cent on an annual basis, driven primarily by our liquids rich Montney and Duvernay assets. At the end of 2028, we will still have over 20 years of drilling inventory remaining, assuming a consistent 5 per cent annual growth rate beyond 2028.
“We would like to emphasize that our objective is to provide sustainable and profitable growth to our shareholders, including a disciplined level of debt, while remaining committed to responsible development of our assets. Our strategy includes advancing our emission reduction strategy and utilizing our expertise in carbon sequestration.